Future Seasonal Changes in Extreme Precipitation Scale With Changes in the Mean
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Atmospheric warming results in an intensification of annual precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remain regionally and at seasonal scales, especially for extremes. Using 29 models from Sixth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we investigate future changes extreme (under scenario SSP5‐8.5) how it compares to mean precipitation. Over land, find a strong wettest day all seasons mid high latitudes Northern Hemisphere India during monsoon. Extreme intensity decreases subtropics some seasons, including regions around Mediterranean basin Southern Africa, these drying patterns are not apparent results. The key finding is that CMIP6 multi‐model always shows align where there model agreement. That is, by end 21st century, extremes intensify increases decline decreases. This should hide inherent associated, namely range can be found across models, important modulation internal variability. Yet, this study broad consistency such could used infer (and vice versa), thus providing valuable information risk planning mitigation strategies.
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Introduction Conclusions References
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Earth’s Future
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2328-4277']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002979